Well folks, it’s May.
May is always an interesting month from my perspective. You get plenty of weather to deal with, things start to green up, I get to go golfing, enjoy friends’ graduations/parties, family time, and (don’t forget!) Mother’s Day. These are the great things about May. And of course, there are probably some things that aren’t so great about May. Not to be a cynic, but I’ve always said that May means it “May” thunderstorm, it “May” hail, and we “May” have a tornado…Welcome to Kansas!
This month’s Pulse theme is “weather and flying.” As pilots and operators, May is the month we really show our skills. We are shooting instrument approaches and navigating thunderstorms and hail. I find myself watching frontal movement 3 to 5 days ahead of a flight, which is probably more than any other time of the year. I also know that there’s a strong chance my flights will be exposed to icing conditions, so I place a little more emphasis on running those check list items, and system checks prior to each flight.
What is synonymous with the month of May, weather, and the Pilatus market? I’m glad you asked. As pilots and operators we must be ‘weathermen’ of sorts. We must gather all the data in our best effort to somehow estimate and plan for a flight. Honestly, I don’t know how meteorologists do it, they’re amazing. We can all agree, these folks are experts at gathering data and forecasting the future. Could anyone have imagined a decade ago that we’d be able to forecast the trajectory of a storm by simply pressing play on a radar track? No way.
So how does weather tie into the Pilatus market?
Like meteorologists, our team here at JetSwiss gathers a lot of data on a daily basis. Combined with other very specific information, we use it all to calculate a handful of predictive reports for our clients: Pilatus Value Ranking (PVR) system, Maintenance Projection Reports (MPR), and Aircraft Condition Evaluation (ACE). Some of you reading this have experienced these things firsthand. For those of you who have not, let’s just say that we find ourselves at JetSwiss being ‘meteorologists’ for the Pilatus market every day. And, like every good meteorologist, we are here to give you our “forecast.”
The market has been hanging around 80 aircraft for sale for PC-12s and around 15 aircraft for sale in the PC-24 market. On one of our most recent projects, we validated and experienced firsthand that there is a substantial disconnect between buyers and sellers right now. Sellers are still asking prices that might have been valid 18 months ago or more. Conversely, buyers, right or wrong, are not willing to pay these prices anymore and feel like it’s their turn to get a better deal. So, what is happening? Buyers send ‘low ball’ offers, and sellers shrug them off. This is briefly creating a stagnant market. The smart buyers understand the values and the smart sellers do as well. First party to check their ego in the coat closet wins! I’m from Nebraska and one of the famous sayings I always heard growing up was “you can lead a horse to water, but you can never make them drink!” Wanna guess what the state of the market is today? Yup, you guessed it — lots of stubborn horses.
Here’s some “meteorologist” data that we find is rather telling:
We break down the various market segments into different categories, coinciding with major changes in the PC-12 lineage. Sales data would suggest that in the trailing 6 months, on average the following segments are trading at “x” percent of their original sticker price.
Percentage of Original Sticker Value
1995-2000 /45’s: 95%
2001-2006 /45’s: 84.3%
2006-2008 /47’s: 117%
2008-2011 NG’s: 96.2%
2012-2015 NG’s: 96.3%
2016-2020 NG’s: 114.7%
2020-2023 NGX’s: 122.7%
If you pay close attention to the market, you likely get the sense of these statistics. However, it is very interesting to see it on paper. It’s no surprise that the /47’s lead the market in this category. They are a highly desirable batch of airplanes and owner/operators have always been willing to pay up for them. If you are still the original owner of a /47, you’re sitting on a Unicorn. The remaining categories which are outperforming their peers are on the two ends of the market. The entry point into the Pilatus market and the “like new” machines are still garnering incredible prices. Like we always say, do your homework, listen to your gut, and ask an expert for help. You’re journey for buying or selling will go much smoother and much faster with high rewards and low risk.
So go out and navigate the month of May–take some extra time to prepare for a flight. Please reach out with any questions, comments, or stories!
Fly safe,
Bub