How low can it go?
Airplanes weren’t flying, supply chain disruptions created major manufacturing delays, and people stopped spending money. I remember it like it was yesterday, and it was 6 years ago! There was uncertainty, fear, and skepticism throughout the marketplace.
Then we all blinked, and the aircraft market took a 180-degree turn.
The Pilatus market went from 85 aircraft for sale in August 2020 to fewer than 30 as the calendar turned to 2021. An influx of capital entered the market, many people experienced private aviation for the first time, and owning an economically viable business aircraft suddenly became a realistic option. Consumers who previously would have defaulted to the airlines began seriously considering aircraft ownership.
Today, the market feels remarkably similar.
Since August 2020, Pilatus has produced 544 PC-12s, and during the same period, only 21 aircraft have retired from the fleet. That’s a net gain of 523 airplanes! Yet, despite that significant fleet growth, inventory in August 2026 stood at just 49 aircraft available for sale. That represents approximately 2.2% of the fleet, compared to 5.0% in August 2020 and 1.8% in January 2021.
In other words, the supply of available aircraft has remained exceptionally tight even as the fleet has expanded dramatically. That dynamic speaks to the enduring demand for the PC-12 platform and the reluctance of existing owners to part with a proven asset in an uncertain environment. The market today is very much aligned with what we saw following the initial post-COVID run on aircraft, and the year-end buying season that we’ve become accustomed to hasn’t even peaked yet.
What does this mean for the marketplace?
The marketplace will likely shift buyer behavior away from traditional acquisition processes with extensive contract negotiations and service center pre-purchase inspections, and toward quicker transactions supported by expedited due diligence and hangar-based prebuys. It will force U.S. buyers to consider international opportunities and expand the range of aircraft they are willing to evaluate compared to what they might pursue in a more balanced market.
Buyers will need to act quickly, make decisive decisions, and show greater flexibility on certain terms and conditions if they want sellers to choose their offer over competing alternatives. Having an agent working on your behalf who can rapidly assess an asset, identify potential landmines, and leverage industry relationships to help move a transaction forward will become increasingly important to a buyer’s success.
Meanwhile, sellers will need to navigate the landscape carefully. Selecting a buyer who not only offers the highest price but also has the ability to execute quickly may prove more important than ever. Sellers will likely gravitate toward buyers who are not unknown entities but instead have already assembled their transaction team. An attorney, tax advisor, pilot, banker, and broker should already be in place before an offer is submitted. The marketplace is likely to move too quickly for prospective buyers who do not have their ownership house in order and are not prepared to execute.
What will the market look like in January 2027?
If history is any indicator, we should see between 55 and 65 transactions between now and year-end, with only about 45 new aircraft becoming available on the open market. Assuming roughly 33% of fourth-quarter transactions occur in the private market, publicly marketed inventory could continue to shrink. Under that scenario, the market may enter January 2027 with approximately 25 aircraft publicly available for sale.
If that prediction proves accurate, we’ll once again find ourselves discussing a level of scarcity that many thought had disappeared when production rates increased and the fleet expanded. It might be kind of fun to look back in a few months and see whether this forecast plays out. Stay tuned…
Fly safe,
The JetSwiss Team